At Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday 24 May, Rishi Sunak claimed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) “is now forecasting that we will have stronger growth than Germany, France and Italy”. Rishi Sunak has now been urged to correct record.
Wow, the IMF forecasts that the UK will have stronger growth than Germany, France and Italy, really?
Well, as ever, no not really.
Sunak urged to correct record
As Full Fact report: “This is true looking at longer-term projections—Treasury figures based on IMF projections suggest that between 2025 and 2028 the UK will have higher cumulative GDP growth than Italy, France and Germany.
“But in both 2023 and 2024 the UK is projected to have the second lowest growth rate in the G7.”
Full Fact concludes: “Government ministers and their departments must take care to present data and statistics with all necessary context and caveats. If data is presented without context or caveats, it can give an incomplete or misleading picture.”
What we know about forecasts is the longer term they are, the more time there is for external and internal factors to alter this.
Peter Stefanovic was furious with the claim and created a new film, calling out the PMs claims.
He shared the video and wrote: “Rishi Sunak has told MP’s the IMF forecasts the UK to have “stronger growth” than Germany, France & Italy But UK is forecast to have among the LOWEST GROWTH in the G7 over the next two years & he knows it! If you think the PM should be asked to correct the record RT this widely.”
This tweet is worth a look also….